ons¡£¡¡The¡¡dish¡¡runs¡¡away¡¡with¡¡the¡¡spoon¡£¡¡In¡¡the¡¡Thomas¡¡the¡¡Tank¡¡Engine¡¡series£»¡¡we¡¡even¡¡have¡¡anthropomorphic¡¡lootives¡¡and¡¡railway¡¡cars£»¡¡charmingly¡¡portrayed¡£¡¡No¡¡matter¡¡what¡¡we're¡¡thinking¡¡about£»¡¡animate¡¡or¡¡inanimate£»¡¡we¡¡tend¡¡to¡¡invest¡¡it¡¡with¡¡human¡¡traits¡£¡¡We¡¡can't¡¡help¡¡ourselves¡£¡¡The¡¡images¡¡e¡¡readily¡¡to¡¡mind¡£¡¡Children¡¡are¡¡clearly¡¡fond¡¡of¡¡them¡£
When¡¡we¡¡talk¡¡about¡¡a¡¡¡¨threatening¡¨¡¡sky£»¡¡a¡¡¡¨troubled¡¨¡¡sea¡¡diamonds¡¡¡¨resisting¡¨¡¡being¡¡scratched£»¡¡the¡¡Earth¡¡¡¨attracting¡¨¡¡passing¡¡asteroid£»¡¡or¡¡an¡¡atom¡¡being¡¡¡¨excited£»¡¨¡¡we¡¡are¡¡again¡¡drawn¡¡to¡¡a¡¡kind¡¡of¡¡animist¡¡worldview¡£¡¡We¡¡reify¡£¡¡Some¡¡ancient¡¡level¡¡of¡¡our¡¡thinking¡¡endows¡¡inanimate¡¡Nature¡¡with¡¡life£»¡¡passions£»¡¡and¡¡forethought¡£
The¡¡notion¡¡that¡¡the¡¡Earth¡¡is¡¡self¡aware¡¡has¡¡lately¡¡been¡¡growing¡¡at¡¡the¡¡fringes¡¡of¡¡the¡¡¡¨Gaia¡¨¡¡hypothesis¡£¡¡But¡¡this¡¡was¡¡monplace¡¡belief¡¡of¡¡both¡¡the¡¡ancient¡¡Greeks¡¡and¡¡the¡¡earl¡¡Christians¡£¡¡Origen¡¡wondered¡¡whether¡¡¡¨the¡¡earth¡¡also£»¡¡according¡¡to¡¡its¡¡own¡¡nature£»¡¡is¡¡accountable¡¡for¡¡some¡¡sin¡£¡¨¡¡A¡¡host¡¡of¡¡ancient¡¡scholars¡¡thought¡¡the¡¡stars¡¡alive¡£¡¡This¡¡was¡¡also¡¡the¡¡position¡¡of¡¡Origen£»¡¡of¡¡St¡£¡¡Ambrose¡¡£¨the¡¡mentor¡¡of¡¡St¡£¡¡Augustine£©£»¡¡and¡¡even£»¡¡in¡¡a¡¡more¡¡qualified¡¡form£»¡¡of¡¡St¡£¡¡Thomas¡¡Aquinas¡£¡¡The¡¡Stoic¡¡philosophical¡¡position¡¡on¡¡the¡¡Sun's¡¡nature¡¡was¡¡stated¡¡by¡¡Cicero£»¡¡in¡¡the¡¡first¡¡century¡¡B¡£C¡££º¡¡¡¨Since¡¡the¡¡Sun¡¡resembles¡¡those¡¡fires¡¡which¡¡are¡¡contained¡¡in¡¡the¡¡bodies¡¡of¡¡living¡¡creatures£»¡¡the¡¡Sun¡¡must¡¡also¡¡be¡¡alive¡£¡¨
Animist¡¡attitudes¡¡in¡¡general¡¡seem¡¡to¡¡have¡¡been¡¡spreading¡¡recently¡£¡¡In¡¡a¡¡1954¡¡American¡¡survey£»¡¡75¡¡percent¡¡of¡¡people¡¡polled¡¡were¡¡willing¡¡to¡¡state¡¡that¡¡the¡¡Sun¡¡is¡¡not¡¡alive£»¡¡in¡¡1989£»¡¡only¡¡30¡¡percent¡¡would¡¡support¡¡so¡¡rash¡¡a¡¡proposition¡£¡¡On¡¡whether¡¡an¡¡automobile¡¡tire¡¡can¡¡feel¡¡anything£»¡¡90¡¡percent¡¡of¡¡respondents¡¡denied¡¡it¡¡emotions¡¡in¡¡1954£»¡¡but¡¡only¡¡73¡¡percent¡¡in¡¡1989¡£
We¡¡can¡¡recognize¡¡here¡¡a¡¡shorting¡ªin¡¡some¡¡circumstances¡¡serious¡ªin¡¡our¡¡ability¡¡to¡¡understand¡¡the¡¡world¡£¡¡Characteristically£»¡¡willy¡nilly£»¡¡we¡¡seem¡¡pelled¡¡to¡¡project¡¡our¡¡own¡¡nature¡¡onto¡¡Nature¡£¡¡Although¡¡this¡¡may¡¡result¡¡in¡¡a¡¡consistently¡¡distorted¡¡view¡¡of¡¡the¡¡world£»¡¡it¡¡does¡¡have¡¡one¡¡great¡¡virtue¡ªprojection¡¡is¡¡the¡¡essential¡¡precondition¡¡for¡¡passion¡£
Okay£»¡¡maybe¡¡we're¡¡not¡¡much£»¡¡maybe¡¡we're¡¡humiliatingly¡¡related¡¡t0¡¡apes£»¡¡but¡¡at¡¡least¡¡we're¡¡the¡¡best¡¡there¡¡is¡£¡¡God¡¡and¡¡angels¡¡aside£»¡¡we're¡¡the¡¡only¡¡intelligent¡¡beings¡¡in¡¡the¡¡Universe¡£¡¡One¡¡correspondent¡¡writes¡¡to¡¡me£»¡¡¡¨I¡¡am¡¡as¡¡sure¡¡of¡¡this¡¡as¡¡anything¡¡in¡¡my¡¡experience¡£¡¡There¡¡is¡¡no¡¡conscious¡¡life¡¡anywhere¡¡else¡¡in¡¡the¡¡Universe¡£¡¡Mankind¡¡thus¡¡returns¡¡to¡¡its¡¡rightful¡¡position¡¡as¡¡center¡¡of¡¡the¡¡universe¡£¡¨¡¡However£»¡¡partly¡¡through¡¡the¡¡influence¡¡of¡¡science¡¡acid¡¡science¡¡fiction£»¡¡most¡¡people¡¡today£»¡¡in¡¡the¡¡United¡¡States¡¡at¡¡least£»¡¡reject¡¡this¡¡proposition¡ªfor¡¡reasons¡¡essentially¡¡stated¡¡by¡¡the¡¡ancient¡¡Greek¡¡philosopher¡¡Chrysippus£º¡¡¡¨For¡¡any¡¡human¡¡being¡¡in¡¡existence¡¡to¡¡think¡¡that¡¡there¡¡is¡¡nothing¡¡in¡¡the¡¡whole¡¡world¡¡superior¡¡to¡¡himself¡¡would¡¡be¡¡an¡¡insane¡¡piece¡¡of¡¡arrogance¡£¡¨
But¡¡the¡¡simple¡¡fact¡¡is¡¡that¡¡we¡¡have¡¡not¡¡yet¡¡found¡¡extraterrestrial¡¡life¡£¡¡We¡¡are¡¡in¡¡the¡¡earliest¡¡stages¡¡of¡¡looking¡£¡¡The¡¡question¡¡is¡¡wide¡¡open¡£¡¡If¡¡I¡¡had¡¡to¡¡guess¡ªespecially¡¡considering¡¡our¡¡long¡¡sequence¡¡of¡¡failed¡¡I¡¡would¡¡guess¡¡that¡¡the¡¡Universe¡¡is¡¡filled¡¡with¡¡beings¡¡far¡¡more¡¡intelligent£»¡¡tar¡¡more¡¡advanced¡¡than¡¡we¡¡are¡£¡¡But¡¡of¡¡course¡¡I¡¡might¡¡be¡¡wrong¡£¡¡Such¡¡a¡¡conclusion¡¡is¡¡at¡¡best¡¡based¡¡on¡¡a¡¡plausibility¡¡argument£»¡¡derived¡¡from¡¡the¡¡numbers¡¡of¡¡planets£»¡¡the¡¡ubiquity¡¡of¡¡organic¡¡matter£»¡¡the¡¡immense¡¡timescales¡¡available¡¡for¡¡evolution£»¡¡and¡¡so¡¡on¡£¡¡It¡¡is¡¡not¡¡a¡¡scientific¡¡demonstration¡£¡¡The¡¡question¡¡is¡¡among¡¡the¡¡most¡¡fascinating¡¡in¡¡all¡¡of¡¡science¡£¡¡As¡¡described¡¡in¡¡this¡¡book£»¡¡we¡¡are¡¡just¡¡developing¡¡the¡¡tools¡¡to¡¡treat¡¡it¡¡seriously¡£
What¡¡about¡¡the¡¡related¡¡matter¡¡of¡¡whether¡¡we¡¡are¡¡capable¡¡of¡¡creating¡¡intelligences¡¡smarter¡¡than¡¡ourselves£¿¡¡puters¡¡routinely¡¡do¡¡mathematics¡¡that¡¡no¡¡unaided¡¡human¡¡can¡¡manage£»¡¡outperform¡¡world¡¡champions¡¡in¡¡checkers¡¡and¡¡grand¡¡masters¡¡in¡¡chess£»¡¡speak¡¡and¡¡understand¡¡English¡¡and¡¡other¡¡languages£»¡¡write¡¡presentable¡¡short¡¡stories¡¡and¡¡musical¡¡positions£»¡¡learn¡¡from¡¡their¡¡mistakes£»¡¡and¡¡petently¡¡pilot¡¡ships£»¡¡airplanes£»¡¡and¡¡spacecraft¡£¡¡Their¡¡abilities¡¡steadily¡¡improve¡£¡¡They're¡¡getting¡¡smaller£»¡¡faster£»¡¡and¡¡cheaper¡£¡¡Each¡¡year£»¡¡the¡¡tide¡¡of¡¡scientific¡¡advance¡¡laps¡¡a¡¡little¡¡further¡¡ashore¡¡on¡¡the¡¡island¡¡of¡¡human¡¡intellectual¡¡uniqueness¡¡with¡¡its¡¡embattled¡¡castaways¡£¡¡If£»¡¡at¡¡so¡¡early¡¡a¡¡stage¡¡in¡¡our¡¡technological¡¡evolution£»¡¡we¡¡have¡¡been¡¡able¡¡to¡¡go¡¡so¡¡far¡¡in¡¡creating¡¡intelligence¡¡out¡¡of¡¡silicon¡¡and¡¡metal£»¡¡what¡¡will¡¡be¡¡possible¡¡in¡¡the¡¡following¡¡decades¡¡and¡¡centuries£¿¡¡What¡¡happens¡¡when¡¡smart¡¡machines¡¡are¡¡able¡¡to¡¡manufacture¡¡smarter¡¡machines£¿
PERHAPS¡¡THE¡¡CLEAREST¡¡INDICATION¡¡that¡¡the¡¡search¡¡for¡¡an¡¡unmerited¡¡privileged¡¡position¡¡for¡¡humans¡¡will¡¡never¡¡be¡¡wholly¡¡abandoned¡¡is¡¡what¡¡in¡¡physics¡¡and¡¡astronomy¡¡is¡¡called¡¡the¡¡Anthropic¡¡Principle¡£¡¡It¡¡would¡¡be¡¡better¡¡named¡¡the¡¡Anthropocentric¡¡Principle¡£¡¡It¡¡es¡¡in¡¡various¡¡forms¡£¡¡The¡¡¡¨Weak¡¨¡¡Anthropic¡¡Principle¡¡merely¡¡notes¡¡that¡¡if¡¡the¡¡laws¡¡of¡¡Nature¡¡and¡¡the¡¡physical¡¡constants¡ªsuch¡¡as¡¡the¡¡speed¡¡of¡¡light£»¡¡the¡¡electrical¡¡charge¡¡of¡¡the¡¡electron£»¡¡the¡¡Newtonian¡¡gravitational¡¡constant£»¡¡or¡¡Planck's¡¡quantum¡¡mechanical¡¡constant¡¡had¡¡been¡¡different£»¡¡the¡¡course¡¡of¡¡events¡¡leading¡¡to¡¡the¡¡origin¡¡of¡¡humans¡¡would¡¡never¡¡have¡¡transpired¡£¡¡Under¡¡other¡¡laws¡¡and¡¡constants£»¡¡atoms¡¡would¡¡not¡¡hold¡¡together£»¡¡stars¡¡would¡¡evolve¡¡too¡¡quickly¡¡to¡¡leave¡¡sufficient¡¡time¡¡for¡¡life¡¡to¡¡evolve¡¡on¡¡nearby¡¡planets£»¡¡the¡¡chemical¡¡elements¡¡of¡¡which¡¡life¡¡is¡¡made¡¡would¡¡never¡¡have¡¡been¡¡generated£»¡¡and¡¡so¡¡on¡£¡¡Different¡¡laws£»¡¡no¡¡humans¡£
There¡¡is¡¡no¡¡controversy¡¡about¡¡the¡¡Weak¡¡Anthropic¡¡Principle£º¡¡Change¡¡the¡¡laws¡¡and¡¡constants¡¡of¡¡Nature£»¡¡if¡¡you¡¡could£»¡¡and¡¡a¡¡very¡¡different¡¡universe¡¡may¡¡emerge¡ªin¡¡many¡¡cases£»¡¡a¡¡universe¡¡inpatible¡¡with¡¡life¡£*¡¡The¡¡mere¡¡fact¡¡that¡¡we¡¡exist¡¡implies¡¡£¨but¡¡does¡¡not¡¡impose£©¡¡constraints¡¡on¡¡the¡¡laws¡¡of¡¡Nature¡£¡¡In¡¡contrast£»¡¡the¡¡various¡¡¡¨Strong¡¨¡¡Anthropic¡¡Principles¡¡go¡¡much¡¡farther£»¡¡some¡¡of¡¡their¡¡advocates¡¡e¡¡close¡¡to¡¡deducing¡¡that¡¡the¡¡laws¡¡of¡¡Nature¡¡and¡¡the¡¡values¡¡of¡¡the¡¡physical¡¡constants¡¡were¡¡established¡¡£¨don't¡¡ask¡¡how¡¡or¡¡by¡¡Whom£©¡¡so¡¡that¡¡humans¡¡would¡¡eventually¡¡e¡¡to¡¡be¡£¡¡Almost¡¡all¡¡of¡¡the¡¡other¡¡possible¡¡universes£»¡¡they¡¡say£»¡¡are¡¡inhospitable¡£¡¡In¡¡this¡¡way£»¡¡the¡¡ancient¡¡conceit¡¡that¡¡the¡¡Universe¡¡was¡¡made¡¡for¡¡us¡¡is¡¡resuscitated¡£
*¡¡Our¡¡universe¡¡is¡¡almost¡¡inpatible¡¡with¡¡life¡ªor¡¡at¡¡least¡¡what¡¡we¡¡understand¡¡as¡¡necessary¡¡for¡¡life£º¡¡Even¡¡if¡¡every¡¡star¡¡in¡¡a¡¡hundred¡¡billion¡¡galaxies¡¡had¡¡an¡¡Earthlike¡¡planet£»¡¡without¡¡heroic¡¡technological¡¡measures¡¡life¡¡could¡¡prosper¡¡in¡¡only¡¡about¡¡10¡37¡¡the¡¡volume¡¡of¡¡the¡¡Universe¡£¡¡For¡¡clarity£»¡¡let's¡¡write¡¡it¡¡out£º¡¡only¡¡0¡£000¡¡000¡¡000¡¡000¡¡000¡¡000¡¡000¡¡000¡¡000¡¡000¡¡000¡¡000¡¡1¡¡of¡¡our¡¡universe¡¡is¡¡hospitable¡¡to¡¡life¡£¡¡Thirty¡six¡¡zeroes¡¡before¡¡the¡¡one¡£¡¡The¡¡rest¡¡is¡¡cold£»¡¡radiation¡riddled¡¡black¡¡vacuum¡£
To¡¡me¡¡it¡¡echoes¡¡Dr¡£¡¡Pangloss¡¡in¡¡Voltaire's¡¡Candide£»¡¡convinced¡¡that¡¡this¡¡world£»¡¡with¡¡all¡¡its¡¡imperfections£»¡¡is¡¡the¡¡best¡¡possible¡£¡¡It¡¡sounds¡¡like¡¡playing¡¡my¡¡first¡¡hand¡¡of¡¡bridge£»¡¡winning£»¡¡knowing¡¡that¡¡there¡¡are¡¡54¡¡billion¡¡billion¡¡billion¡¡£¨5¡£4¡¡X¡¡1028£©¡¡possible¡¡other¡¡hands¡¡that¡¡I¡¡was¡¡equally¡¡likely¡¡to¡¡have¡¡been¡¡dealt¡¡¡£¡¡¡£¡¡¡£¡¡and¡¡then¡¡foolishly¡¡concluding¡¡that¡¡a¡¡god¡¡of¡¡bridge¡¡exists¡¡and¡¡favors¡¡me£»¡¡a¡¡god¡¡who¡¡arranged¡¡the¡¡cards¡¡and¡¡the¡¡shuffle¡¡with¡¡my¡¡victory¡¡foreordained¡¡from¡¡The¡¡Beginning¡£¡¡We¡¡do¡¡not¡¡know¡¡how¡¡many¡¡other¡¡winning¡¡hands¡¡there¡¡are¡¡in¡¡the¡¡cosmic¡¡deck£»¡¡how¡¡many¡¡other¡¡kinds¡¡of¡¡universes£»¡¡laws¡¡of¡¡Nature£»¡¡and¡¡physical¡¡constants£º¡¡that¡¡could¡¡also¡¡lead¡¡to¡¡life¡¡and¡¡Intelligence¡¡and¡¡perhaps¡¡even¡¡delusions¡¡of¡¡self¡importance¡£¡¡Since¡¡we¡¡know¡¡next¡¡to¡¡nothing¡¡about¡¡how¡¡the¡¡Universe¡¡was¡¡made¡ªor¡¡even¡¡if¡¡it¡¡was¡¡made¡ªit's¡¡difficult¡¡to¡¡pursue¡¡these¡¡notions¡¡productively¡£
Voltaire¡¡asked¡¡¡¨Why¡¡is¡¡there¡¡anything£¿¡¨¡¡Einstein's¡¡formulation¡¡was¡¡to¡¡ask¡¡whether¡¡God¡¡had¡¡any¡¡choice¡¡in¡¡creating¡¡the¡¡Universe¡£¡¡But¡¡if¡¡the¡¡Universe¡¡is¡¡infinitely¡¡old¡ªif¡¡the¡¡Big¡¡Bang¡¡some¡¡15¡¡billion¡¡years¡¡ago¡¡is¡¡only¡¡the¡¡most¡¡recent¡¡cusp¡¡in¡¡an¡¡infinite¡¡series¡¡of¡¡cosmic¡¡contractions¡¡and¡¡expansions¡ªthen¡¡it¡¡was¡¡never¡¡created¡¡and¡¡the¡¡question¡¡of¡¡why¡¡it¡¡is¡¡as¡¡it¡¡is¡¡is¡¡rendered¡¡meaningless¡£
If£»¡¡on¡¡the¡¡other¡¡hand£»¡¡the¡¡Universe¡¡has¡¡a¡¡finite¡¡age£»¡¡why¡¡is¡¡it¡¡the¡¡way¡¡it¡¡is£¿¡¡Why¡¡wasn't¡¡it¡¡given¡¡a¡¡very¡¡different¡¡character£¿¡¡Which¡¡laws¡¡of¡¡Nature¡¡go¡¡with¡¡which¡¡others£¿¡¡Are¡¡there¡¡meta¡laws¡¡specifying¡¡the¡¡connections£¿¡¡Can¡¡we¡¡possibly¡¡discover¡¡them£¿¡¡Of¡¡all¡¡conceivable¡¡laws¡¡of¡¡gravity£»¡¡say£»¡¡which¡¡ones¡¡can¡¡exist¡¡simultaneously¡¡with¡¡which¡¡conceivable¡¡laws¡¡of¡¡quantum¡¡physics¡¡that¡¡determine¡¡the¡¡very¡¡existence¡¡of¡¡macroscopic¡¡matter£¿¡¡Are¡¡all¡¡laws¡¡we¡¡can¡¡think¡¡of¡¡possible£»¡¡or¡¡is¡¡there¡¡only¡¡a¡¡restricted¡¡number¡¡that¡¡can¡¡somehow¡¡be¡¡brought¡¡into¡¡existence£¿¡¡Clearly¡¡we¡¡have¡¡not¡¡a¡¡glimmering¡¡of¡¡how¡¡to¡¡determine¡¡which¡¡laws¡¡of¡¡Nature¡¡are¡¡¡¨possible¡¨¡¡and¡¡which¡¡are¡¡not¡£¡¡Nor¡¡do¡¡we¡¡have¡¡more¡¡than¡¡the¡¡most¡¡rudimentary¡¡notion¡¡of¡¡what¡¡correlations¡¡of¡¡natural¡¡laws¡¡are¡¡¡¨permitted¡£¡¨
For¡¡example£»¡¡Newton's¡¡universal¡¡law¡¡of¡¡gravitation¡¡specifies¡¡that¡¡the¡¡mutual¡¡gravitational¡¡force¡¡attracting¡¡two¡¡bodies¡¡towards¡¡each¡¡other¡¡is¡¡inversely¡¡proportional¡¡to¡¡the¡¡square¡¡of¡¡how¡¡far¡¡they¡¡are¡¡apart¡£¡¡You¡¡move¡¡twice¡¡as¡¡far¡¡from¡¡the¡¡center¡¡of¡¡the¡¡Earth¡¡and¡¡you¡¡weigh¡¡a¡¡quarter¡¡as¡¡much£»¡¡ten¡¡times¡¡farther¡¡and¡¡you¡¡weigh¡¡only¡¡a¡¡hundredth¡¡of¡¡your¡¡ordinary¡¡weight£»¡¡etc¡£¡¡It¡¡is¡¡this¡¡inverse¡¡square¡¡law¡¡that¡¡permits¡¡the¡¡exquisite¡¡circular¡¡and¡¡elliptical¡¡orbits¡¡of¡¡planets¡¡around¡¡the¡¡Sun£»¡¡and¡¡moons¡¡around¡¡the¡¡planets¡ªas¡¡well¡¡as¡¡the¡¡precision¡¡trajectories¡¡of¡¡our¡¡interplanetary¡¡spacecraft¡£¡¡If¡¡r¡¡is¡¡the¡¡distance¡¡between¡¡the¡¡centers¡¡of¡¡two¡¡masses£»¡¡